How well the American economy performs over the short- and intermediate-term depends on the path of the coronavirus.
At issue is the recent surge in new Covid-19 cases and deaths due to the highly contagious Delta variant and the more recent Lambda variant.
Another factor is the clash between politics and science.
As we experience a new wave of infections, one must ask how long Covid will persist?
Between March 1918 and the summer of 1919, the world experienced three distinct waves of the Spanish Flu.
Covid-19 will likely exceed this number.
Regardless, economic growth in the U.S. will suffer, to some degree, unless we take more aggressive measures to combat Covid.
Viruses mutate and SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes Covid-19, is no different.
The recent Delta variant is much more contagious than the original Alpha strain.
For example, the original strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus had an R-naught factor of 2.5 to 3.0 where, on average, each person infected with the virus would spread it to 2.5 to 3.0 people.
The Delta variant has an R-naught factor of 8.0 to 9.0.
Thus, one infected person will spread the virus to as many as nine others.
The Delta variant was first discovered in India.
Another variant has reached America.
According to experts, the Lambda variant may have originated in Peru in August 2020.
Today it accounts for about 90% of the cases in that country.
Recently, it was reported that Lambda was found in Texas before spreading to north Louisiana.
Currently, Louisiana has the highest number of daily cases per 100,000 (118), followed by Mississippi (84) and Florida (80).
…. thought he was going to leave us on a bummer ………. he did ……… w